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Despite Mixed Signals, Floridians' Confidence Rises in June

GAINESVILLE, Fla. – After a sharp decline last month, consumer sentiment among Floridians increased 1.2 points in June to 97.2 from May’s revised figure of 96.0.

Among the five components that make up the index, three increased and two decreased.

Current conditions
Floridians’ opinions about current economic conditions were mixed. Opinions about personal financial situations now compared with a year ago increased 6.7 points from 87.8 to 94.5 – the greatest increase of any reading this month. The opinion is generally shared by all Floridians across sociodemographic groups, but it’s stronger among men, those under age 60 and those with annual income levels above $50,000.

In contrast, the overall opinion as to whether this is a good time to buy a big-ticket item like an appliance decreased 3.4 points from 104.0 to 100.6. Again, this sentiment is shared by all Floridians – the third consecutive month with a decline in this component.

“Although these two components of the index moved in opposite directions, together they showed that feelings regarding current economic conditions improved among Floridians in June,” says Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Future expectations
Expectations of personal financial situations a year from now increased 2.4 points from 101.6 to 104.0. However, short- and long-term expectations about the future national economy were mixed.

Expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next year decreased 1.7 points from 94.0 to 92.3. Those views are stronger among Floridians age 60 and older and those with incomes under $50,000. This perception is shared by all Floridians with the exceptions of those with income levels above $50,000, whose reading showed a favorable change.

On the other hand, expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years increased 1.6 points from 92.8 to 94.4; however, respondents age 60 and older and with income under $50,000 expressed a decrease in this component.

“The increase in June’s confidence came mainly from consumers’ current financial situation compared with a year ago,” says Sandoval. “Nonetheless, overall opinions are split by income level and age. Those with income levels above $50,000 reported an increase in consumer sentiment, while those with income under $50,000 reported a decrease. Similarly, respondents under the age of 60 reported an increase in confidence, while people 60 and older reported the opposite. Overall though, Floridians are more optimistic.”

Economic indicators in Florida remained positive. In particular, the labor market in Florida continued to add more jobs in May, and the monthly unemployment rate in Florida was 3.4% in May, down one-tenth of a point from April.

Compared with the last year, the number of jobs added in May statewide was up 214,500, a 2.5% increase. The industries that gained the most jobs over the past year were education and health services, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality. The only industry losing jobs over the year was information.

“Looking ahead, in view of the realized economic outlook in Florida, we anticipate consumer sentiment to remain high in the following months; however, considering Floridians’ expectations about the national economy in the short run, further declines in the major-household-item component might predict a slowdown in the consumption of durable goods,” Sandoval said.

© 2019 Florida Realtors®


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