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Economist Says Chance of 2020 Recession Only 50%

NEW YORK – Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, who predicted the 2000 market collapse and the housing crisis that led to the Great Recession, says he believes there’s a less than 50% chance of a recession next year.

“Whether it’s coming next year, I can’t be sure,” he told the Financial News in an interview published Monday.

The Trump administration’s escalating trade war with China and slowing growth overseas have battered U.S. manufacturing and convinced many economists that a U.S. recession is likely next year. Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics say there’s a 60% chance that the record 10-year-old economic expansion will peter out and a downturn will begin by the end of 2020.

Although the economy has been growing solidly, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates in July for the first time in a decade to head off a potential slump. Fed policymakers are expected to cut rates again next week.

Shiller, 73, says he “wouldn’t be at all surprised” if a recession begins next year, but he doesn’t have the sense of foreboding he had during the dotcom bubble in 2000.

Shiller predicted the market dot-com meltdown in his book, “Irrational Exuberance.” His book, “Narrative Economics,” will be published next month.

Copyright 2019, USATODAY.com, USA TODAY, Paul Davidson

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Information provided by Florida Realtors.  Click here to see the original article.

Reprinted with permission Florida Realtors. All rights reserved. 

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